Polyester filament: the cost driven market may form
under the bearish atmosphere of most people, the polyester filament Market in July unexpectedly showed a unilateral rise. The overall performance of polyester filament Market in August was not as good as before. At present, it has entered the traditional textile peak season "golden nine silver ten". In this year, which is quite different from previous years, can polyester filament still usher in the hottest market of the year as scheduled
according to the author's understanding, the dilemma faced by many downstream weaving enterprises may be the biggest test for the polyester industry. The downstream order receiving situation is set to promote the development of aluminum based new materials industry into the fast lane, and the enthusiasm of single negotiation cannot be compared with that in previous years. This year, the international demand market is weak, and China's huge export-oriented economic system is undergoing a severe test of weakening external demand. In previous years, after the first ten days of August, there will be a substantial increase in foreign order inquiries, but there has not been much improvement in the second ten days of August this year, and many factors are curbing the achievement of orders in the second half of the year. When the price of polyester filament rose significantly in July, the follow-up of downstream fabrics was significantly weak, and the conventional chemical fiber fabrics with the largest demand originally performed mediocrely, such as polyester taffeta, Chunya textile, light textile, peach skin velvet and so on. Many manufacturers sell at low prices in order to digest inventory and withdraw funds. Recently, Fujian Province, an important textile region, has held many ordering meetings for small and medium-sized garment enterprises. According to incomplete statistics, the orders of the garment industry in this quarter have generally decreased by 20-30% this year
the appreciation of RMB is an important reason why foreign trade companies dare not place orders rashly. Since the reform of RMB exchange rate, the price of RMB against US dollar has been constantly refreshed; On August 11, 2011, the central parity rate of RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was 6.3991 yuan to 1 US dollar, and the 6.40 level was easily broken. For each foreign trade enterprise, the low profit was completely offset by the continuous appreciation of the RMB. During this period, the profit of foreign trade orders decreased by 30% compared with previous years. Even foreign trade companies with orders in their hands have been suppressed in their enthusiasm to place orders, and the enthusiasm of weaving enterprises to receive orders is also gradually losing under the background of reduced profits. In addition, the rapid rise in labor costs has also led to the gradual loss of some overseas orders to the surrounding Southeast Asia
from the demand side, it is a foregone conclusion that the overall demand of this year's textile peak season will weaken, but the degree will not be too deep. In terms of cost, PX devices in Asia entered the centralized maintenance period in the second half of the year. According to incomplete statistics, the total capacity of PX devices under planned maintenance exceeded 7 million tons, with a cumulative loss of effective output of more than 1 million tons. Left, strengthen the development of forced manufacturing process and new sensors and instrument components. A new PTA device in Sanfangxiang was originally planned to be put into production in the third quarter, and PTA's theoretical demand for PX increased unabated in the second half of the year. The support of PX market may greatly promote the PTA market. However, the market is not unilateral after all. It is unrealistic to judge the continuous rise of PTA only based on the support of PX. The macro capital, the commissioning of new devices and the commencement of downstream polyester will affect the overall market
meg, MEG capacity expansion projects in the next few years are concentrated in the field of coal chemical industry. Although the traditional MEG projects made of ethylene oxide and natural gas have increased, the growth rate is low. Therefore, the current market expectations for Meg's tight supply and demand in the future are basically unified. Because of this, MEG inventory is at a relatively high level in both factories and traders, which leads to a balance between MEG supply and demand at least in 2011, making it difficult for the market to rise sharply
the demand side is weaker than in previous years, but the cost side is relatively strong when the change-over switch should be turned to the loading gear, which is the dilemma faced by polyester filament at present. Perhaps cost promotion is more suitable for the current market conditions. In the future, the market risk may continue to increase, but if enterprises correctly grasp the sales market, do not blindly pursue the maximization of sales, selectively accept orders to reduce the risk, and configure LCD controllers to avoid some sudden factors causing losses to enterprises, they can still expect the polyester filament market to be "warm in spring"
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