Multifaceted pressure commercial real estate is facing a collective breakthrough
multifaceted pressure commercial real estate is facing a collective breakthrough
August 6, 2019
will enter the era of refined development of innovation and change as a whole
the commercial real estate market, which is difficult to be optimistic, has obviously entered a period of deep adjustment, but this period also breeds new opportunities
at present, the supply of commercial land in China is large, and the stock removal is limited. Some cities are facing greater inventory pressure. The internal and external factors, such as the slowdown of economic growth, the purchase restriction policy of commercial projects and the rise of e-commerce market, have an increasingly strong impact on commerce, and the pressure of reform in the commercial real estate industry is increasingly urgent. In the early stage of household appliance design, Haier Group, an insider in the industry, believed that the internal competition pattern of enterprises would become clearer, and commercial real estate would enter the era of refined development of innovation and change as a whole
commercial real estate is under pressure on many sides
in the industry's view, China's commercial real estate has developed too fast in the past few years, which has led to a certain degree of homogenization or even "oversupply". This phenomenon is more common in Beijing, Shanghai and other cities, and various business forms such as office buildings and retail are also seeking up and down in the tide of reform of online and offline integration and urban renewal
recently, the data of Savills research department showed that the office market in Beijing has slowed down since the end of 2018. In the first quarter of 2019, the average rent of the city's office market fell for the first time after seven consecutive quarters of quarter on quarter growth, and some business districts even experienced negative absorption. Moreover, in the just concluded second quarter, the office market continued the downward trend of rents month on month, At the same time, the supply of large volume has better mechanical and dynamic performance (flexibility is directly driving the vacancy rate of Grade A office buildings to rise month on month.
in mid July, the China Index Research Institute released the 2019 white paper on the development of commercial real estate in China It is pointed out that due to the increasing downward pressure on the current economy, the space for commercial consumption is being squeezed. From the perspective of the external macro environment, there is great downward pressure on the economy and the development of enterprises slows down. At the same time, the growth rate of the service industry has also slowed down, and the pulling effect of consumption on the economy has weakened. This has a certain impact on the investment side and sales side of commercial real estate. The data in the first five months of this year showed that the investment and sales area of commercial real estate development, including commercial business buildings and office buildings, decreased
e-commerce trading mode is also continuously impacting the real commercial market. In recent years, the impact of the rise of e-commerce on offline physical commerce has continued to ferment. The growth vitality of total retail sales of social consumer goods comes more from online consumption, and offline physical commerce is impacted. In September 2019, the sales area of commercial houses nationwide was 930000 square meters of fence type aluminum lead alloy composite anode, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%
in addition, the impact of commercial policies has been continuously released, and the inventory pressure has increased. Some analysts believe that the purchase restriction policies for commercial projects successively introduced by Beijing and other cities have had a great impact on the commercial market, greatly reducing the liquidity of commercial housing, and the transaction scale and transaction price have decreased significantly year-on-year. The implementation of the purchase restriction policy for commercial projects has had a significant impact on the supply and demand pattern of commercial products market, and further exacerbated the inventory pressure of commercial products
market structural opportunities await to be opened
since 2019, affected by internal and external factors such as macroeconomic operation and industry reform, the sales area of commercial real estate has decreased year-on-year, intensifying the inventory pressure in the commercial real estate market that has already entered the stock competition, and the operation capacity of commercial real estate has become more important. In addition, under the joint action of continuous optimization of economic structure, iterative upgrading of new technologies and new consumption trends, the pace of reform and adjustment of the commercial real estate industry has further accelerated
at the same time, industry experts pointed out that market structural opportunities still exist. From the perspective of land supply in the first half of the year, the data of the Chinese Academy of Sciences shows that the overall supply of commercial land market is still large, and the heat of first tier cities is not reduced. In 2019, 300 urban commercial office land across the country was launched and planned to be built. So far, there has been no underpayment of one month's salary. The construction area is 102 million square meters, with a total transaction of 91 million square meters; The average transaction floor price is 2179.6 yuan/square meter, and the average premium rate is 9.21%. From the perspective of cities at all levels, the volume and price of first tier cities have increased, the average transaction floor price has increased significantly, and the market heat has not decreased; The second tier cities' commercial land market is divided internally, and the land market is under pressure; The popularity of commercial land market in third and fourth tier cities has declined
"from the current performance of the commercial real estate leasing market, there are still structural opportunities in the commercial business Housing leasing market in first tier cities in the first half of 2019." The relevant person in charge of the Chinese Academy of Sciences pointed out that the new first tier and second tier cities with a certain economic foundation and relatively strong business activity will also continue to be concerned by retailers. On the other hand, with the continuous optimization of economic structure, the demand for office buildings in finance, TMT and other industries is expected to continue to increase, which will further drive the steady and slight rise of office building market rent. "In particular, some key cities have attracted a large number of enterprises to settle down and invest under the favorable policies of various industries and talents, which will bring space for rent growth."
at the "2019 singularity (China) green business ecological value forum" held recently, Shan Dawei, chairman of Youbo group, said that commercial real estate has begun to turn to refined operations, and it is necessary to constantly think about "quality balance" and "speed growth". Therefore, green commerce, which can meet the needs of stock transformation and consumption upgrading, and takes health and efficiency as the core, has become the future development trend
Feng Lun, founder of Wantong Group, said that in the coming years, two types of enterprises in the field of commercial real estate will live better, "one is the enterprise that sells, raises and rents in commercial operation; the other is the enterprise that operates well in the subdivision field. This kind of enterprise will inevitably have a relatively high return on investment and will find its own operational advantages in the 'post development era'."
the industry has entered a highly competitive period
Feng Lun believes that under the guidance of industry upgrading and consumption, the era of high-quality commercial real estate in China has arrived, and the industry has entered a highly competitive period. "For real estate companies, transformation is a 'fat turn', micro transformation is in-depth innovation; small transformation is pluralistic but does not change careers; large transformation is a complete farewell to real estate development."
in the view of the industry, commercial real estate is facing a new industry development pattern. On the one hand, in the context of consumption upgrading and business changes, the demand side is changing, the iteration of new models and new technologies is accelerating, and business changes continue to appear. On the other hand, the commercial market has entered the era of high competition in stock, and the industry competition is becoming increasingly fierce. Under the changing situation of the times, commercial real estate enterprises continue to adjust and improve their development ideas in terms of layout, products, funds, capital integration, etc., in order to continue to consolidate their competitive advantages
judging from the layout of new projects in recent years, the business of first tier cities is expanding from the city center to the peripheral areas. For example, in the Beijing market, from the second half of 2019 to 2020, the projects to be opened in Beijing shopping centers are mainly located in the suburbs of Beijing, of which about 90% are located outside the Fourth Ring Road
under the background of urbanization and consumption upgrading in the third and fourth tier cities, the commercial market will also face greater opportunities for upgrading in the next few years. From a general perspective, the transformation and upgrading of the stock commercial real estate in the head cities are increasing, and the main battlefield of the new projects in 2019 is still focused on the third and fourth tier cities
"on the basis of precise positioning, the enterprise's product format and product space are also entering the differentiation mode. Under the background of high competition in stock, the construction of differentiated products has become one of the core competitiveness of enterprises." The person in charge of the Chinese Academy of Sciences said that in order to cope with the escalating consumer demand of consumers, enterprises should adhere to differentiated positioning in terms of business innovation, complement regional functional weaknesses, create experiential scenes of leisure and entertainment, enrich business content, and improve experience and interactivity in terms of content and scenesAccording to the white paper of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, capital integration is one of the direct and effective ways for commercial real estate enterprises to become bigger and stronger. It may not only bring synergy between capital and project side, but also an important way for enterprises to obtain high-quality stock assets. In 2019, the capital acquisition between commercial real estate enterprises and commercial operation enterprises is still very active, and the integration opportunities between enterprises continue to appear
in general, commercial real estate has entered a period of deep adjustment and high competition, facing many uncertainties. This poses new challenges to all kinds of participants in the market. Enterprises need to constantly adjust and improve their development path, accurately grasp the policy trend and market demand, and actively respond to market changes under the principle of value investment